Category Archives: Political Forecast
All right folks, it’s… game time I guess? Follow my twitter for the scoop on everything from the exit polls to when the results come in. We so excited. I’ll also report on any crazy happenings that may deviate from what pretty much everyone thinks will be the result: Mitt “Running for President since 2006″ Romney beating Gingrich and the other people who don’t matter anymore, (although some have taken an interest in Santorum’s sweater vests).
Given that I’m now David N. Plouffe (see nickname), let’s talk electoral college:
At a peripheral level, Obama won by big numbers in ’08, he’ll win again, but not as much. Deep dive, however, underscores the specificity of such numbers – what does a 51/48 lead over McCain win in ’08 mean for the primary tomorrow? For the general this lap around? It’s an interesting concept, given that the numbers of folks between 31 and 45 have gone up by about 6% since the first lap around (’08), numbers over 60 have gone down by over 10% (!), a huge upset for Florida, especially the GOP, and that numbers between 18 and 35 have skyrocketed (numbers not avail, but it’s over 10%.) In broad strokes, that’s a resounding victory for Obama, but I welcome the debate that that is NOT locked in – there are more College Republicans active in Florida than 80% of the rest of the chapters of CR. This isn’t Michigan; more than four people actually show up to those events, and enthusiasm is only growing, though I’ll chalk that up to their being a fairly important primary there tomorrow.
Oh yay, I was wondering when this was going to happen. Members of the Republican Party are making the behind-the-scenes moves to be candidates in the 2012 Presidential election primaries.
Lets start with everyone’s favorite philanderer, Newt Gingrich.
Ol’ Newt is making the most visible steps toward running, announcing an exploratory website at the Faith and Freedom Coalition in Iowa on Monday. Has already scored the endorsements of some high-profile governors. Has a spokesman, Rick Tyler, an advisor and an attorney as part of his staff.
Next up, Tim Pawlenty, the man who took 50 eons to certify Al Franken as a US Senator despite every indication that he had won the race outright in 2008.
Per DailyKos, Pawlenty “Phil Musser, a former adviser to Romney and former head of the Republican Governors Association; former Bush campaign officials Terry Nelson and Sara Taylor; and Alex Conant, a former RNC press secretary.” This gem, who according to PPP wouldn’t even win his home state in a primary, seems pretty geared to run.
Mitt Romney, a politician since the womb, has made huge steps toward running as well:
Romney has essentially been running for President since 2008, with a built-in staff including his former communications chief Matt Rhodes, Rich Beeson as political director, Neil Newhouse as pollster and Andrea Saul as communications director (after working as spokeswoman for Carly Fiorina’s senate bid and a staffer on McCain’s campaign. Because we all know how those two worked out.)
Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, and (yes) Sarah Palin have all signaled some interest in running as well. No matter who runs it’s going to inevitably wind up with a lot of people calling Obama a no-good socialist communist arugula-eating hater of America. And the Antichrist. And it’ll all come down to whether the American public will be able to see through the rhetoric and vote on the issues. We will find out in just a year and a half.
There has been long speculation that Sen Arlen Specter (R-PA) may leave the Republican party due to a likely primary challenge from the right from ultra-conservative Club for Growth President Pat Toomey (who would get destroyed in a general election). Mathmatically, it doesn’t make sense for Specter to continue as a Republican. With his vote for the stimulus package and likely vote for EFCA, the Democrats in Pennsylvania love him, but the Republicans will never give him the nomination again. And so it seemed that the only way for Specter to remain in the Senate is to leave the Republican party. (It’s important to note here that in Pennsylvania you cannot run for one party’s nomination and then, if you lose, run in the general election as an independent, a la Joe Lieberman).
This has all been speculation, until today. Earlier, Specter made some interesting comments about possibly running as an independent in 2010. The Hill reports:
He said in an interview with The Hill that the role of the Republican Party in Washington is too vital for him to switch to the Democratic side.
â€œIâ€™m staying a Republican because I think I have a more important role to play there,â€ he said. â€œI think the United States very desperately needs a two-party system. … And Iâ€™m afraid that weâ€™re becoming a one-party system, with Republicans becoming just a regional party.â€
At the same time, Specter said he is open to the possibility of running as an Independent with the understanding that he would caucus with Republicans, just as Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) did with Democrats in 2006.
Though he left that option on the table, he suggested it would be a last resort.
This position is noticeably different from before, when he wouldn’t even entertain the notion of not running as a Republican.
So, what do you all think? Should he run as a Republican, Independent, or a Democrat? Or maybe not run at all? And if he runs as an independent, with whom should he caucus?
…right? I’m still pretty worn out from the campaign…
While the world may be ending in 2012, the end of the United States is coming even sooner according to Russian professor Igor Panarin. The U.S. will break apart by June or July of 2010. We have apparantely already started the decline with the financial crisis. The dean of Russia’s Foreign Ministry Academy for future diplomats says that there is about a 50% chance that the U.S. will enter a civil war and eventually break up into 6 different pieces do to our moral decay and poor financialÂ situation. Time to learn your new national anthem….O Canada!
One of my favorite political topics to talk about and write about here on the blog is gerrymandering. It is an act of brazen political dominance that can ensure victories, create defeats, and control the future from a little room in a state legislature somewhere. It can create massive advantages for the incumbent party, as in Maryland where
Democrats have a 7-1 advantage in seats, in a state that is Democratic, but not that much. It goes very much the other way in Florida where Republicans control 15 of the 25 seats, even with the Democrats having netted three seats in the last two elections, in a state that Obama won and is very closely split politically.
The problem with gerrymandering, put very simply, is arrogance. Those who wish to maximize seats for their party need to worry about the potential for going too far. If they put aside too many 51% districts for their party, the other party can take over those seats, undoing the advantage that the redistricting party was trying to get in the first place. Thus, Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is a cool state. The most common description for the state’s politics is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle. The two cities are highly Democratic. Pittsburgh’s is a more blue-collar and industrial kind, while Philadelphia has a large African-American population. This leaves the main swing area of the state as the Philadelphia suburbs.
More after the jump… (more…)
According to a breaking news NY Times article our long term fears have a short term solution. A rescue plan will be given to the big 3 and congress will vote on it next week. The details available about the bailout are not available yet. However, it has been disclosed that most of the money will come from a $25 billion fund we had for developing fuel efficient cars and it will be given in short term loans until Jan 20th when Obama can help more. (more…)
A new Congress brings again the question of what to do with Democrat/Independent/Republican/ Joe Lieberman.Â Voices on the left want to kick him out of the Democratic caucus for endorsing John McCain’s failed bid for the White House, speaking at the Republican National Convention and breaking his promise not to criticize Sen. Obama.Â They are wrong.Â The President-elect is right.Â For all the douchebaggery that Sen. Lieberman has engaged in over the past year, he should be kept.
So Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight has mapped out the most likely electoral map scenarios for a McCain victory.Â The whole post should be very interesting to anyone, whether you’re A) Extremely worried and convinced that the Democrats will manage snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or B) Wondering why McCain hasn’t already conceded, or anywhere in between.
(DISCLAIMER: When I say “most likely”, it should be understood that this is a relative term.Â By Silver’s calculations, ANY McCain win is an extreme long-shot.Â He currently gives him a 3.7% (UPDATE: 1.9%) chance.)
This first map is apparently by far the most likely scenario in which McCain wins. (Occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations)
If this map looks familiar, that’s because it’s basically the same as 2004, except we pick up New Mexico and Iowa.Â The pickup of 12 electoral votes makes it closer, but we still lose by 11 (as opposed to 35).
This next map seems to be the one McCain’s campaign has been working toward, with all their efforts in Pennsylvania.Â Apparently, it is roughly tied with a couple others (around 40 occurrences in 10,000 simulations) as the second most likely.
This would leave us with a painful, painful McCain victory, 270-268, and would probably lead to a pronounced rise in alcohol-related deaths among Democrats across the country.Â It would also cause me to avoid traveling to the state of Ohio ever again, even if it means going through Canada or Indiana on my way to, say, Washington D.C.Â Maybe I’ll just fly a lot more.
But take heart.Â Silver ends his analysis with this:
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.
So if they call Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio for Obama early on, we can probably bust out the bubbly.Â But you already knew that.