Category Archives: Polls
In honor in Charles Darwin’s birthday, here is a poll featured on Think Progress:
I think one commenter puts it perfectly with:
“To some, ignorance is not only bliss, but a state of moral superiority to which all right thinking people should aspire.”
Sorry, Darwin, the American education system has failed you.
“Which is the most corrupt state in the U.S.?” This is the question TIME.com proposed in its latest poll. Interestingly enough, the percentages are running pretty even. Given, the poll represents a very small portion of the population… but still, interesting to look at, especially in terms of regions of the U.S. Of course, the Midwest pretty much thinks Illinois takes the cake and there’s the odd “Alaska is corrupt!” in there, too. But what exactly is going down in Louisiana? I feel out of the loop. Is it because Louisiana has just faced major suckiness since Katrina (or before)? (Someone. Do enlighten me.) And I wonder why Wyoming is yellow.
Anyway, it caught my eye.
A new CNN poll suggests that 6 out of 10 Americans believe that the Big Three should not be given any federal aid. This is a big change from a month ago when about half the country thought that a bailout wasd the way to go. Attributed to the bad press given to the execs from the Big Three for taking corporate jets to D.C in November. Other sad and silly stats.
- 24% of people also said that they would never feel the effects if the Big Three were to go under.
- 67% of people on the West Coast don’t support the bailout.
- 53% of people don’t think that helping the Big Three will help the U.S. economy.
So Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight has mapped out the most likely electoral map scenarios for a McCain victory.Â The whole post should be very interesting to anyone, whether you’re A) Extremely worried and convinced that the Democrats will manage snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or B) Wondering why McCain hasn’t already conceded, or anywhere in between.
(DISCLAIMER: When I say “most likely”, it should be understood that this is a relative term.Â By Silver’s calculations, ANY McCain win is an extreme long-shot.Â He currently gives him a 3.7% (UPDATE: 1.9%) chance.)
This first map is apparently by far the most likely scenario in which McCain wins. (Occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations)
If this map looks familiar, that’s because it’s basically the same as 2004, except we pick up New Mexico and Iowa.Â The pickup of 12 electoral votes makes it closer, but we still lose by 11 (as opposed to 35).
This next map seems to be the one McCain’s campaign has been working toward, with all their efforts in Pennsylvania.Â Apparently, it is roughly tied with a couple others (around 40 occurrences in 10,000 simulations) as the second most likely.
This would leave us with a painful, painful McCain victory, 270-268, and would probably lead to a pronounced rise in alcohol-related deaths among Democrats across the country.Â It would also cause me to avoid traveling to the state of Ohio ever again, even if it means going through Canada or Indiana on my way to, say, Washington D.C.Â Maybe I’ll just fly a lot more.
But take heart.Â Silver ends his analysis with this:
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.
So if they call Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio for Obama early on, we can probably bust out the bubbly.Â But you already knew that.
So, I have never blogged about Bill O’Reilly because I feel like his brand of vile doesn’t deserve commentary by such auspicious blogs like KAAA. Today, though, I found this on Kos and could not stop myself from laughing until I wheezed.
That would be Bill O’Reilly’s electoral map as it stands right now. Notice, we are losing. Now, I am not the most balanced observer either, but here is mine for shits and giggles.
Two polls today show Obama within either a 5 or 4 points deficit of McCain… Remember how much it sucked that Al Gore lost his home state?
Even if Obama loses all of these battleground states (assuming he wins those on the safer side of this list), he will still win 286-252. More good news for Obama! Granted, a LOT can happen in 19 days, and we can not let up an inch, but at this point it’s looking pretty good.
Obama, up by 2 points in North Dakota? NORTH DAKOTA? And this coming one month after he PULLED OUT OF THE STATE?!?
Now, with that being said, FiveThirtyEight doesn’t buy that ND will actually go to Obama, or that it’s a swing state at all.
Obama’s up 2, but our model isn’t buying that it’s a swing state.
We can debate the meaning of a swing state all day long, and we’ll just have to wait for a few more polls to come out before classifying it as a swing state.
You’ll notice, though, that this is the only poll from North Dakota in a month. Just a slight observation you should note.
This graph courtesy of Five Thirty Eight:
This means that, according to the intense algorithm employed by Five Thirty Eight (which doesn’t simply average polls, but gives different polls different weights based on past accuracy), Obama has an 87.4% chance of winning, and will win 339.7 electoral votes. Truly incredible. (more…)